Democratic Sen. Jon Tester (Mont.) is keeping his distance from the newly formed Harris-Walz ticket as the vulnerable incumbent stares down a tight race for reelection that could determine control of the upper chamber.
Tester praised Vice President Harris when she became President Biden’s running mate back in 2020, but he has kept her 2024 presidential bid at arm’s length. Last week, he reportedly abstained when Montana’s Democratic delegates joined a virtual roll call to vote for Harris to become the party’s official nominee. He’s also expected to skip the Democratic National Convention this month, even as party energy builds behind Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D).
At the same time, the embattled senator this week launched a “Republicans for Tester” group to rally support from across the aisle. His actions underscore the difficult political landscape he faces in Big Sky County, which former President Trump won by more than 16 points in 2020.
“In a state like Montana, it’s not advantageous to be seen with what your opponent will label as a San Francisco liberal, who’s paired up with a Minnesota liberal, and open yourself up to the social/culture wars that this ticket brings,” Democratic strategist Fred Hicks said.
“You have the thinnest of margins possible [in the Senate]. There’s no margin for error. And so you absolutely have to allow people to do what’s best if you’re going to hold control,” Hicks added. “It makes total sense, very smart, for Tester, even though he’s a Democrat and no one doubts that, to not give his opponents any additional fodder.”
Democrats are espousing optimism about their efforts to keep control of the Senate, where they currently hold a two-seat majority. The party can’t afford to lose Tester’s seat, which Republicans see as a prime pickup opportunity along with seats in West Virginia — which they’re virtually guaranteed to win — and Ohio.
Tester’s the last-standing Montana Democrat elected statewide, and polling shows him locked in a tight race against Republican businessman Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer backed by the GOP establishment, including Trump.
Millions have poured into the race, with Tester having the fundraising edge. But the incumbent is still facing political headwinds given the state’s red lean. A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of Montana voters found Sheehy leading Tester by 2 points, a shift from earlier this spring when the Democrat narrowly led.
A forecast from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) looks grim for Tester, giving Sheehy a 77 percent chance of winning the race. DDHQ’s map labels the Montana contest as “lean Republican” while the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates it a “toss up.”
“He really wants Montanans to focus on his record for the state,” Hicks said of Tester. “He doesn’t want this to be a national campaign. And so the best way to avoid it being nationalized is to avoid the national events and the national candidates, and say ‘This is about Montana.’”
Tester was the second Senate Democrat to call for Biden to withdraw from the 2024 race. And when Montana delegates cast ballots to help Harris secure the Democratic nomination on a virtual roll call vote, NBC Montana and Montana Public Radio reported that Tester was the only one of the state’s delegates to withhold support.
That abstention was an inside-baseball move that isn’t likely to draw a lot of attention, but it was a defensive play, said Montana-based Republican strategist Erik Iverson, a former chair of the Montana Republican Party and a pollster for Sheehy’s campaign. If Tester had cast a pro-Harris ballot, Republicans would’ve seized on it, he said.
Senate Republicans have already been hammering Tester for encouraging Harris to run for the Senate in 2015, when he was chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Sheehy has also re-upped Tester’s 2020 social media endorsement when Harris became Biden’s vice president pick, calling his rival “two-faced.”
National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Jason Thielman contended in a recent column that Tester “has been doing everything he can to avoid telling Montanans where he stands on the upcoming presidential election.”
In a similar vein, Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf argued some vulnerable Senate incumbents are planning to pass on the Democratic convention, which kicks off in Chicago later this month, in order to avoid giving Republicans ammo.
A campaign spokesperson told The Associated Press that Tester will be “farming and meeting face to face with Montanans” during the convention. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who is also battling a Trump-backed challenger in an increasingly red-leaning state, told CNN he will skip the gathering.
“It’s the photos of them being there that are more dangerous than the act of being there itself,” Sheinkopf said, regarding their decision to skip the event.
Although many Democrats seem euphoric about the top of the ticket after the presidential race shake-up last month, it’s still early, Sheinkopf said, and “no one really knows what the impact of the Harris nomination will be.”
Tester hasn’t been to the convention since 2008, according to the AP, when former President Obama came just a few points short of flipping Montana.
Brian Darling, a GOP strategist and former Senate aide, argued that “boycotting the convention and not appearing with a candidate” isn’t enough to help Democrats like Tester sway voters.
“These candidates are doing their best to run away from the Harris-Walz ticket, but there’s only so far they can run,” Darling said.
Tester’s actions make for a vivid contrast with Sheehy, who has embraced the top of the ticket, touting his alignment with Trump.
The former president was headed Friday night to Bozeman to campaign with the Republican candidate. Though the state is all but guaranteed to vote Trump’s way in the presidential race, after he won by big margins in both 2016 and 2020, he’s reprising his 2018 efforts to oust Tester.
“For years, Tester has been telling Montana that he’s a moderate while he votes with [President] Biden, [Vice President] Harris and [Sens.] Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren,” Trump told a large crowd of supporters in Bozeman, Mont.
He called Tester a “radical left lunatic” while slamming his record on issues like the U.S. southern border and Keystone XL Pipeline. Sheehy and Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), the chairman of the Senate GOP campaign arm, were also in attendance.
“The nation is watching Montana. They are counting on us 88 days away in this most consequential election,” Daines told attendees. “If we are going to take this country back, we must elect President Trump, and we must elect Tim Sheehy to support President Trump back in Washington.”
Meanwhile, Tester is reaching out to Republican Montanans, pitching himself as a lawmaker who can represent both ends of the state’s political spectrum. His “Republicans for Tester” group has more than 100 GOP members, including former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot and former Secretary of State Bob Brown, his campaign said.
“I’ll work with anyone, regardless of party, to do right by Montana,” the senator wrote on social platform X earlier this week.
“I get what Tester’s trying to do, ’cause he has to,” said Iverson, the GOP strategist. “He is desperately trying to make Montana voters believe that he’s a moderate.”
“But right now, voters in the state are going, ‘Well, if I want a Republican in the U.S. Senate, I might as well just vote for a Republican.’”
Updated Aug. 10 at 8:10 a.m. EDT.
