Harris closes polling gap, faces uphill battle against Trump

Article content

Kamala Harris has jolted the Democratic Party back to life. In the week since Joe Biden announced he was stepping down as the presidential nominee for the Democrats and endorsing Harris, the race has changed substantially.

Article content

Donald Trump is still leading in national polls in the U.S., but Harris is polling better than Biden, especially in swing states.

In places like Pennsylvania and Michigan, Harris has been able to reinvigorate the Democrats’ campaign hopes. That said, Harris still has a long way to go before she can beat Trump.

Her main struggle between now and November will be the mood of the U.S. public, which has soured in recent months.

Darrell Bricker, CEO of Global Public Affairs at Ipsos, said even though his firm’s poll for Reuters last week showed Harris leading Trump 44% to 42%, the underlying fundamentals are against Harris at the moment.

Article content

Article content

“First of all, a very strong desire for change, people just wanted to change direction. And then the second thing was two or three issues right at the top of the agenda in which Trump and the Republicans have a big lead — for example, the economy and immigration,” Bricker said.

Ipsos wasn’t the only polling firm picking up on the sour mood of the public. The Siena poll for the New York Times found that 60% of Americans believed their country was on the wrong track, while a YouGov poll for The Economist found 69% felt the U.S. was on the wrong track.

“So the question is can Kamala Harris deal with the fact that people want change? Can she actually represent change? That remains to be seen,” Bricker said.

“And the second thing is are her positions on immigration and the economy enough to narrow the gap that currently exists with Trump and the Republicans on those two most important issues?”

Article content

RECOMMENDED VIDEO

We apologize, but this video has failed to load.

Play Video

Democrats from Biden on down have been quick to point to a lower inflation rate, lower unemployment and other positive economic indicators. That’s not a message that’s resonating with the public, who feel the economy has gotten worse for them and their families.

“Telling people that the inflation rate is down and that you shouldn’t be feeling as bad as you’re feeling is kind of missing the point. It’s not what people want to hear. And if you’re explaining on these issues, you’re probably losing,” Bricker said.

The one issue that Harris beats Trump on is abortion, but while that might rally some suburban women to her side, any voter who has abortion as the main driver of their vote was likely already voting for the Democrats.

Article content

Harris has no hope of convincing voters that she has a plan to fix immigration and the massive influx of people across the southern border. Despite the media now insisting that Harris was never appointed as Biden’s border czar, the public knows the truth: Biden appointed Harris to work on the border and she failed.

On the economy, Harris would have to detach herself from the policies of the administration she’s been a part of for the last 3 1/2  years and offer something new.

Few voters feel they are better off now than they were a year ago — just 12%, according to YouGov. With most voters disapproving of Biden’s handling of the economy and inflation, Harris will face an uphill battle in convincing voters she has the answers.

That’s why the advantage at this point still sits in Trump’s corner.

The saying is that a week in politics is a lifetime. Well, over the last few weeks we’ve seen an assignation attempt, a candidate step down and an internal party coup install a new nominee.

There are many more political lifetimes to go between now and Nov. 5.

Article content