Arbitrators side with Guerrero Jr. in contract tussle with Blue Jays

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The losses continue to pile up for the Blue Jays front office, although in this case, having Vlad Guerrero Jr. prevail in a potentially contentious arbitration hearing could end up being a positive for a team needing more from its superstar first baseman.

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As baffling as it was that the case even got to a hearing this week in Arizona, the three-person panel ruled in favour of the Jays first baseman on Wednesday, meaning Guerrero will earn $19.9 million US in 2024.

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The arbitrator’s rejection of the Jays’ offer of $18.05 million makes Guerrero’s case the richest such settlement in MLB history and comes just a week before Jays pitchers and catchers report to Dunedin, Fla. for spring training.

While it’s unclear what the motivation of general manager Ross Atkins was in risking dissent between player and team over less than $2 million, the three-time all-star can now proceed towards a critical campaign in his young career with at least a small sense of satisfaction.

It certainly can be argued that merely allowing your would-be best hitter to get to the hearing stage was an unnecessary risk, even if it is often just a clinical evaluation based on stats and comparables.

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There is a popular narrative that since the process is merely a transaction enabled by the collective bargaining agreement it’s just cool, emotion-free business. It is not always the way, of course, and has the potential to be much worse depending on how aggressive the team is in its language opposing the player.

Furthering the perplexity, the broader financial picture, the two sides were scrumming over peanuts. The Jays, remember, were willing to approach $700 million US in an attempt to land generational star Shohei Ohtani back in December while Guerrero will have earned $40 million in his career following this season with greater riches still to come.

Given that dynamic and the fact that free agency is now just two years away for Guerrero, the arbitration process certainly was a talking point around the team, especially since the 24-year-old was the only Jays player not to avoid arbitration.

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If and when Atkins comments publicly on the proceedings you can bet he will be dismissive of the possibility of any lingering fallout. Guerrero is likely to take the same approach — especially now that he won — but a relatively minute monetary dispute has the potential to linger when the subject of the mega long-term deal is broached over the next year and beyond.

That Guerrero was made to the arbitration route continued a run of particularly gloomy developments for Atkins, a narrative they’ll work to flip when spring training gets under way.

First there was the dismal playoff dismissal at the hands of the Minnesota Twins back in October.

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Then there was the near comical blame game fallout which saw Atkins essentially throw manager John Schneider under the bus for the decision to yank Jose Berrios from the disastrous Game 2.

A team that couldn’t score runs then proceeded to have a modest off-season despite grabbing sensational headlines in its pursuit of Ohtani certainly would like to flip the script one of these days.

At its worst, whatever went down at the hearing could be the genesis of ill will between the two sides, a damaging initiative given the bigger contract issues that await. (The poster child for that scenario is former starter Marcus Stroman who infamously said of his arb hearing with the Jays: “The negative things that were said about me by my own team will never leave my mind.”)

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On the other hand, the Jays have generally been gentle in their approach to handling the intermittent struggles the three-time all star and reigning Home Run Derby champ has endured.

Stroman’s assessment aside, the process is supposed to be much more benign. In theory, the results would have little effect on the season that awaits beyond the potential of some added motivation for Guerrero. The last thing he needed is pressure, however, as now more than ever Guerrero must know its time for him to become the player he believes he can be.

All things considered, a minor win for Guerrero has the potential to trump the unnecessary loss dealt to his bosses.

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