Maple Leafs’ bottom six forwards strengthening Keefe’s belief

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The Maple Leafs’ bottom-six forwards are rounding into a trustworthy group.

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That’s how coach Sheldon Keefe views the work being done by the lines centred by Max Domi and David Kampf in recent games, and it’s not necessarily a good development for Nick Robertson and Ryan Reaves.

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As Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner chew their way up the ranks in the Leafs’ record books, Pontus Holmberg and Bobby McMann have been bolstering the team with reliable and productive minutes, providing Keefe with little reason to make lineup changes when the Colorado Avalanche visits Scotiabank Arena on Saturday.

“I’m more comfortable probably than I ever have been, especially with the two guys (Kampf and Noah Gregor) that I’ve been playing with,” McMann said after scoring in the Leafs’ overtime loss against the New York Islanders on Thursday. “That helps a lot. We play a similar style — fast, we know to keep it simple, but we want to get pucks to the net and make it hard (on the opposition).”

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Holmberg made another nifty play on Long Island, slipping the puck to Matthews for a goal after some diligent forechecking. That came 48 hours after Holmberg’s one-handed goal against San Jose put him in the running for the best Leafs goal of the season.

What sets Holmberg and McMann apart from Robertson and Reaves is the trust Keefe has in each when they don’t have the puck. The latter two haven’t been able to build that confidence in their coach.

Robertson can’t solidify a lineup spot despite scoring three goals in his past four games. Reaves said on Jan. 1 that he thought he was close to returning from a kneecap injury. Since then, there has been no indication when he might get back in the lineup.

Meanwhile, there has been speculation regarding the Leafs and veteran forward Corey Perry, who is looking to sign with an National Hockey League club after his contract was terminated by the Chicago Blackhawks in November.

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We’ll stick to what we have been saying for a while — the Leafs’ greatest need is on the blue line and that should be the focus of general manager Brad Treliving.

Could Perry help the Leafs? Perhaps. For now, though, there’s enough to like about the work of Toronto’s bottom six.

AVALANCHE IN FORECAST

The Leafs have managed to keep a lid on Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon in the past, limiting one of the game’s top centres to 16 points (seven goals and nine assists) in 18 games. In his NHL career, MacKinnon has fewer points against just three Eastern Conference opponents — Boston (13 points in 18 games), Montreal (14 in 15) and Philadelphia (12 in 17).

However, history might not dictate whether the Leafs can handle MacKinnon. He has bowed to few opponents in 2023-24, and is second in NHL scoring with 67 points, two behind leader Nikita Kucherov of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

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In just seven games has MacKinnon gone without a point — and five of those games were in Colorado’s first 10. In the 32 since, only Dallas on Nov. 18 and St. Louis on Dec. 29 kept MacKinnon’s name off the scoresheet.

MacKinnon, who will be back in Toronto for the all-star game in February, is averaging 22 minutes 59 seconds of ice time a game. Among NHL forwards, only Avs teammate Mikko Rantanen, at 23 minutes seven seconds, has been on the ice more on average.

The Leafs have been looking for a harder challenge, and got one to an extent against the Islanders. Colorado will provide a much tougher test, and watching MacKinnon go up against Matthews, presumably, should be a treat.

The Avalanche, tied for third overall in the NHL in points, will be starting a five-game trip and is coming off a 3-0 win at home against Vegas on Wednesday. Colorado has won six of its past seven, losing only to Florida in that span. The Panthers beat the Avs 8-4 on Jan. 6, marking the second time this season Colorado allowed eight goals in a game.

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LOOSE LEAFS

After the Leafs had a full off-day on Friday, we’ll learn on Saturday the team’s goaltending plans for the weekend. Feel free to bet all that you own on Martin Jones starting against Colorado. Whether it’s Jones, Dennis Hildeby or Ilya Samsonov getting the call at home against the Detroit Red Wings on Sunday remains a mystery. The Wings also are playing a back-to-back this weekend, including a home game on Saturday against Los Angeles. On Friday, Detroit coach Derek Lalonde said that goalies Alex Lyon and James Reimer each will start a game but was not more specific … It will be revealed on Saturday which 12 players (eight skaters and four goalies) have been voted by fans to the NHL all-star festivities at Scotiabank Arena Feb. 1-3. Six will be announced during the first intermission of the afternoon game between the New York Rangers and Washington Capitals, and six will be announced during the pre-game show before the Leafs and Avalanche meet. Matthews, already named to the all-star game by the NHL, naturally would love to be joined by as many teammates as possible. The most recent vote totals, released on Tuesday, had William Nylander leading all skaters and Marner in fifth, with Morgan Rielly in 11th and John Tavares in 12th … Kampf turned 29 on Friday.

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