On 21 July, Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and endorsed Kamala Harris. This historic move changed the landscape of the election and how many felt about the race. As the election enters its final weeks, Guardian US is averaging national polls to see how the two candidates are now faring. We will update our averages once a week, or more if there is major news.
Latest polls
Polling average over a moving 10-day period
Guardian graphic. Source: Analysis of polls gathered by 538.
Latest analysis: For months, Joe Biden trailed Donald Trump in national polls by a narrow margin. After a disastrous debate performance in late July, Biden withdrew from the race. In the span of a few days, he endorsed Kamala Harris and Democrats across the nation lined up behind the new nominee. A combination of the Democrats’ fresh energy and J.D. Vance’s poor performance on the campaign trail after he was announced as the Republican vice-presidential nominee saw the polls swing in the Democrats’ favor. By August, Harris began polling above Trump for the first time in the race.
Next week will see the first polls conducted after Harris was named the official nominee at the Democratic national convention, and we’re likely see a further uptick in the poll numbers for Democrats. But the election is still weeks away, with more debates and potentially poll-shifting moments to come. – Will Craft, 23 August
Notes on data
To calculate our averages, Guardian US took a combination of head-to-head and multi-candidate national polls and calculated a rolling 10-day average for each candidate. Our poll tracker uses polls gathered by 538 and filters out polls from lower quality pollsters.
Polling averages capture how the race stands at a particular moment in time and are likely to change as the election gets closer. Our averages take into account national polls and are an estimate of the support that the candidates have on a national stage. The election is decided by the electoral college, so these averages should not be taken as a likelihood of winning the election in November.
