2024 polls: Trump’s lead over Haley in New Hampshire shrinks to within four points

• Donald Trump: 61.2%

• Nikki Haley: 11.0%

• Ron DeSantis: 11.7%

• Vivek Ramaswamy: 3.5%

• Chris Christie: 3.4%

• Asa Hutchinson: 0.6%

The former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley has tightened the gap between her and the prominent frontrunner in New Hampshire, according to a 21 December poll from American Research Group.

The poll indicated that 33 per cent of likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters support the former president while 29 per cent support Ms Haley, meaning she has closed in on him within four percentage points.

In response to the recent poll, Mr Trump took to Truth Social, blasting it as a “scam.”

He wrote, “FAKE NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL WAS RELEASED ON BIRDBRAIN. JUST ANOTHER SCAM! RATINGS CHALLENGED FOXNEWS WILL PLAY IT TO THE HILT. SUNUNU NOW ONE OF THE LEAST POPULAR GOVERNORS IN U.S. REAL POLL TO FOLLOW.”

The poll also indicated that Chris Christie has pulled ahead of Ron DeSantis in the state, boasting 13 per cent compared to the Florida Republican’s mere 6 per cent.

Joe Biden’s management of the US’s role in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip is deeply unpopular thanks in part to a serious divide among Americans generationally regarding the war.

A new poll from The New York Times and Siena College finds Mr Biden trailing his expected 2020 challenger, Donald Trump, when Americans are asked which politician they’d trust more to lead the US through the crisis. It’s a finding that underscores how badly the incumbent president’s numbers are with voters in his own party as he heads into an election year facing calls not just from Republicans but from Democrats as well to step aside and let a younger candidate run.

Mr Biden’s support from young voters is cratering. Nearly three out of four voters ages 18-29 say they disapprove of Mr Biden’s handling of the conflict — a dismal sign for an incumbent who is consumed with the task of shoring up a coalition that in 2020 included a major surge in the youth vote. Younger voters turned out in 2020 and largely voted against Donald Trump; an analysis from Tufts University found that the percentage of young voters who participated in 2020 jumped 11 points from the previous election cycle.

The reason for the disillusionment of Mr Biden’s younger supporters on this issue is clear: Millennials and Gen Z are more broadly opposed to the Israeli government’s handling of the conflict, which has claimed more than 19,000 lives and has yet to result in the death of any prominent members of Hamas leadership.

US President Joe Biden’s approval rating hit an all-time low on Monday, with just 34 per cent of respondents to a new poll saying they approve of the job he is doing in the White House.

The remaining five per cent of people surveyed said they had not yet made up their minds about the president’s first term.

The Biden administration’s approach to tackling illegal immigration (69 per cent disapproval) and taming inflation (68 per cent disapproval) were identified as areas of particular concern, according to Monmouth.

Meanwhile, 53 per cent were disappointed with the president’s record on job creation and 52 per cent by his administration’s work on bolstering transport and energy infrastructure.

“The Biden administration keeps touting their infrastructure investments and a host of positive economic indicators,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

“Those data points may be factual, but most Americans are still smarting from higher prices caused by post-pandemic inflation. This seems to be what’s driving public opinion. There is political danger in pushing a message that basically tells people their take on their own situation is wrong.”

According to the poll, which was conducted between 10 and 14 December, 92 per cent of respondents said they were at least somewhat likely to vote, with 29 per cent saying they were very likely to vote, and 53 per cent saying they were almost certain that they would show up at the ballot box.

In a CBS News/YouGov poll of potential Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, 29 per cent said they’d vote for Ms Haley compared to 44 per cent who said they would for Mr Trump.

It indicates that while the former president remains the frontrunner of the party, Ms Haley is catching up to him heading into primary season.

Potential Republican primary voters said they view Ms Haley as more likable, a better role model and more reasonable than Mr Trump who is facing a myriad of criminal trials in the coming year.

Despite this, most voters are still supporting the former president in the Granite State – though Mr Sununu says that may not last long.

“There’s so many folks undecided,” the New Hampshire governor told ABC’s This Week on Sunday. “A lot of decisions won’t be made really until the last couple of weeks,” Mr Sununu said.

Speculation about the next presidential election cycle kicked into second gear last month when California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat who has repeatedly insisted that his name will not be in the running for the 2024 election, appeared onstage for a rare moderated debate with Ron DeSantis. The Florida governor remains a candidate for the 2024 Republican nomination, but continues to significantly trail frontrunner Donald Trump in both national and state-level polling.

Mr Newsom’s debate-stage sparring with Mr DeSantis led many to believe that he holds his own national ambitions. Further evidence for that argument can be found in the form of his recent official travel abroad to meet with the leaders of Israel and China.

But the California Democrat is hardly the only one taking very public steps towards securing a national profile among their party. On Tuesday, Michigan’s Governor Gretchen Whitmer released a slate of congressional endorsements through her Fight Like Hell PAC for roughly two dozen centre-left House members; the majority were in key presidential battleground states. Just one was from her own home state.

The list includes Hillary Scholten of Michigan, Susan Wild and Chris DeLuzio of Pennsylvania, Jahanna Hayes of Connecticut, Emilia Sykes of Ohio, Steven Horsford of Nevada, Angie Craig of Minnesota and Lauren Underwood of Illinois.

“There’s not an international event that I’ve attended – not one – where the rest of the world doesn’t come up to me – leaders, no matter what country they’re from – and say, ‘You can’t let him win. You can’t let him win,” Mr Biden reportedly told the audience.